Sassan kasuwa daban-daban suna da buƙatu daban-daban na ingancin ammonia da farashi.

Tun daga shekarar 2022, an fara aikin gina tsarin ammonia mai kore a cikin gida, idan aka yi la'akari da cewa tsawon lokacin aikin shine shekaru 2 zuwa 3, aikin ammonia mai kore a cikin gida zai fara samar da kayayyaki a tsakiya. Masana'antar ta yi hasashen cewa nan da shekarar 2024, ammonia mai kore a cikin gida ko zai sami damar shiga kasuwa, kuma ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki zai kusan tan miliyan 1 a kowace shekara nan da shekarar 2025. Daga mahangar kasuwa don buƙatar ammonia mai roba, sassa daban-daban na kasuwa suna da buƙatu daban-daban don ingancin samfura da farashin ammonia mai roba, kuma ya zama dole a fara daga halayen da ke cikin kowace hanyar haɗin kasuwa don bincika damar kasuwa na ammonia mai kore.

Dangane da tsarin wadata da buƙata na ammonia na roba a China, buƙatun ingancin samfura na kowane ɓangare na kasuwa da kuma farashin ammonia, binciken NENG Jing ya yi nazarin ribar da kuma sararin kasuwa na ammonia kore a kowace hanya ta kasuwa don amfani da masana'antu.

01 Kasuwar ammonia mai kore tana da manyan hanyoyi guda uku

A wannan matakin, wadatar da buƙata ta kasuwar ammonia ta roba ta cikin gida tana da daidaito, kuma akwai wani matsin lamba na ƙarfin aiki da ya wuce kima.

A ɓangaren buƙata, yawan amfani da ammonia yana ci gaba da ƙaruwa. A cewar Hukumar Kididdiga ta Ƙasa da bayanan kwastam, kasuwar ammonia ta roba tana ƙarƙashin amfani da ammonia ta cikin gida, kuma yawan amfani da ammonia ta roba ta cikin gida zai ƙaru da kusan kashi 1% a kowace shekara daga 2020 zuwa 2022, wanda zai kai kimanin tan miliyan 53.2 nan da 2022. Nan da 2025, tare da faɗaɗa samar da caprolactam da sauran na'urori masu tasowa, ana sa ran zai tallafawa ci gaban amfani da ammonia ta roba, kuma yawan amfani da ammonia zai kai tan miliyan 60.

A ɓangaren samar da kayayyaki, jimillar ƙarfin samar da ammonia na roba yana cikin matakin "ƙasa ƙasa". A cewar bayanan ƙungiyar masana'antar takin zamani ta Nitrogen, tun lokacin da aka buɗe ƙarfin samar da ammonia na roba a China a lokacin "Tsarin Shekaru Biyar na 13", an kammala daidaita tsarin ƙarfin samarwa nan da shekarar 2022, kuma ƙarfin samar da ammonia na roba ya canza daga raguwa zuwa ƙaruwa a karon farko, yana murmurewa daga tan miliyan 64.88/shekara a 2021 zuwa tan miliyan 67.6/shekara, kuma ana shirin samar da sama da tan miliyan 4/shekara na ƙarfin samarwa (ban da ammonia kore) a shekara. Nan da shekarar 2025, ƙarfin samarwa ko fiye da tan miliyan 70/shekara, haɗarin ƙaruwar ƙarfin samarwa yana da yawa.

Noma, masana'antar sinadarai da makamashi za su kasance manyan kasuwanni guda uku na ammonia na roba da ammonia kore. Fannin noma da sinadarai sun ƙunshi kasuwar hannun jari na ammonia na roba. A cewar bayanan Zhuochuang Information, a shekarar 2022, amfani da ammonia na roba a fannin noma zai kai kimanin kashi 69% na jimillar amfani da ammonia na roba a China, musamman don samar da takin urea, phosphate da sauran takin zamani; Amfani da ammonia na roba a masana'antar sinadarai ya kai kusan kashi 31%, wanda galibi ana amfani da shi wajen samar da kayayyakin sinadarai kamar nitric acid, caprolactam da acrylonitrile. Bangaren makamashi shine kasuwar da za a samu karuwar amfani da ammonia na roba a nan gaba. A cewar kididdiga da lissafin binciken makamashi, a wannan matakin, amfani da ammonia na roba a fannin makamashi har yanzu bai kai kashi 0.1% na jimillar amfani da ammonia na roba ba, kuma nan da shekarar 2050, ana sa ran yawan amfani da ammonia na roba a fannin makamashi zai kai fiye da kashi 25%, kuma yanayin amfani da zai iya kaiwa ya hada da jigilar hydrogen, man fetur na sufuri, da konewar ammonia da aka yi da sinadarin ammonia a cikin tashoshin wutar lantarki na zafi.

02 Bukatar Noma – Tsarin rage farashin da ke ƙasa yana da ƙarfi, ribar ammonia kore ta ɗan yi ƙasa kaɗan, buƙatar ammonia a fannin noma yana da daidaito. Yanayin amfani da ammonia a fannin noma ya haɗa da samar da takin urea da ammonium phosphate. Daga cikinsu, samar da urea shine mafi girman yanayin amfani da ammonia a fannin noma, kuma ana amfani da tan 0.57-0.62 na ammonia ga kowace tan 1 na urea da aka samar. A cewar Ofishin Kididdiga na Ƙasa, daga 2018 zuwa 2022, samar da urea na cikin gida ya canza kusan tan miliyan 50 a kowace shekara, kuma buƙatar ammonia ta roba ta kasance kusan tan miliyan 30 a kowace shekara. Adadin ammonia da takin ammonia phosphate ke cinyewa ya kai tan miliyan 5 a kowace shekara, wanda kuma yana da daidaito sosai.

Samar da takin nitrogen a fannin noma yana da ɗan sassaucin buƙatu don tsarki da ingancin kayan ammonia. A cewar ma'aunin ƙasa na GB536-88, ammonia mai ruwa yana da kyawawan kayayyaki, kayayyakin ajin farko, samfuran da suka cancanta maki uku, yawan ammonia ya kai kashi 99.9%, kashi 99.8%, kashi 99.6% ko fiye. Takin nitrogen, kamar urea, yana da buƙatu masu faɗi don inganci da tsarkin kayayyaki, kuma masana'antun gabaɗaya suna buƙatar kayan ammonia mai ruwa don isa ga matsayin samfuran da suka cancanta. Jimillar farashin ammonia a fannin noma yana da ƙarancin farashi. Daga mahangar samar da ammonia da farashin ammonia, samar da takin urea na cikin gida da wasu takin ammonia phosphate suna da masana'antar ammonia da aka gina da kanta, farashin ammonia ya dogara da farashin kasuwa na kwal, iskar gas da ingancin masana'antar ammonia, farashin ammonia gabaɗaya shine yuan 1500-3000/ton. Gabaɗaya, farashin da aka yarda da shi na kayan ammonia a fannin noma bai kai yuan 4000/ton ba. A cewar bayanai kan yawan kayayyakin da al'ummar kasuwanci suka tattara, daga shekarar 2018 zuwa 2022, urea tana da kimanin yuan 2,600 a kowace tan a mafi girman farashi, kuma kimanin yuan 1,700 a kowace tan a mafi ƙarancin farashi. Binciken makamashi tare da matakai daban-daban na cikakkun farashin kayan masarufi, farashin sarrafawa da sauran abubuwa, idan babu asara, urea tana da mafi girma da mafi ƙanƙanta farashi daidai da farashin ammonia na kimanin yuan 3900 a kowace tan zuwa yuan 2200 a kowace tan, a cikin layin farashin ammonia kore da ƙasa da matakin.