[Gabatarwa]: A cikin kwata uku na farko na 2023, yanayin gaba ɗaya na makomar methanol na cikin gida ya faɗi da farko sannan ya tashi, a rabin farko na shekara, kyakkyawan tunani mara iyaka na bambancin farashi na yanzu ya sami riba mai kyau, kuma zagayawa na kayayyaki ya ci gaba da yin tsauri, wanda ya sa rabin farko na shekara ya zama kusan kowane wata a ƙarƙashin aikin mai laushi; Futures ya dawo a kwata na uku, amma tashar jiragen ruwa ta buɗe yanayin ajiya mai tarin yawa, kuma wurin ya ƙare tsarin ƙimar har zuwa watanni 10.

Canjin aikin kasuwa a cikin shekara za a iya raba shi zuwa matakai biyu:

Mataki na farko (Janairu 1 - Yuni 12): wannan matakin girgizar farashin mai ta duniya ta faɗi, kodayake an sami koma baya sosai a lokacin rage yawan samar da mai a Opec, amma lokacin ya yi gajere, kuma ba da daɗewa ba ya sake faɗuwa saboda wahalar bin diddigin buƙata. Makomar methanol a wannan matakin babban ma'anar ciniki ita ce ɗanyen mai, zagayowar hauhawar ƙimar riba ta Amurka da sauran abubuwan da suka shafi macro da farashi (wato, kwal), farashin kwal yana ci gaba da faɗuwa (wannan hanyar sadarwa tana bin diddigin Inner Mongolia zuwa masana'antar kwal ta faɗi zuwa mafi ƙarancin kusan yuan 620/ton), tana tallafawa kwararar kuɗi na kamfanoni a yankin samarwa don murmurewa, samar da tsammanin a ƙarƙashin matsin lamba na faifan ko da sabon ƙasa, mafi ƙanƙanta ya faɗi zuwa yuan 1953/ton a watan Yuni.

Mataki na biyu (13 ga Yuni - 28 ga Satumba): wannan matakin makomar methanol ta ƙare, raguwar da aka samu ta hanyar dabarun farashi ta ƙare, faifai ya nuna goyon baya mai ƙarfi a cikin yuan 1950-2000/ton, kuma ana sa ran babban manufar ciniki na farfadowar ya wuce tsammanin, wanda ya haifar da raguwar kaya akai-akai, yana tallafawa sake dawowa mai ƙarfi a farashin mai; Methanol da kansa shine ninki biyu na wadata da buƙata, yawan wadatar kayayyaki da sabbin na'urori na babban yankin sun faɗi, amma kayan suna ci gaba da kasancewa a cikin ƙasa, kasuwa ta fahimci cewa buƙatar da aka saba bayarwa a ƙasa tana da ƙarfi; A lokaci guda, kodayake babban matakin shigo da kaya shine tan miliyan 1.3-1.4/wata, ƙarancin tushen kaya a farkon matakin yana sa kasuwa ta yi tunanin cewa matsin lamba na yankin tashar jiragen ruwa ba shi da yawa, kuma samar da kayayyaki masu yawo yana da ƙarfi. Tare da tsammanin sake farawa na Xingxing da Shenghong da kuma saukowa mai mahimmanci na gaba, teburin tashar jiragen ruwa yana buƙatar tallafawa ta hanyar ƙaruwar methanol sau biyu a cikin macro da buƙatunsa. A ranar 19 ga Satumba, mafi girman koma-baya zuwa yuan 2662/ton.

Idan aka yi la'akari da kwata na huɗu, ana ci gaba da kiyaye yawan shigo da kaya daga Oktoba zuwa Nuwamba a matakin sama da tan miliyan 1.3, kodayake ana sa ran kasuwar za ta ragu sakamakon mummunan tasirin takunkumin iskar gas na Iran a watan Disamba, amma ƙarfin ajiyar yanayi ko ƙasa da na shekarun da suka gabata. Bugu da ƙari, farashin kasuwar babban yankin a shekarar 2023 ya kasance cikin yanayi mai ƙarfi, har ma da yawan dawowar zuwa Jiangxi, Guangxi da Hunan ya faru akai-akai a Kudancin China. Ana sa ran cewa a cikin hunturu na 2023, yanayin yankin na iya bambanta da na shekarun da suka gabata, bambancin farashi tsakanin babban yankin da tashoshin jiragen ruwa na Gabashin China na iya zama da wahala a faɗaɗa zuwa girman tashar jiragen ruwa ta jigilar kaya ta babban yankin, hukumar gaba tana kula da farashin kayayyakin da aka shigo da su, waɗanda ke da matsin lamba mai yawa, da tallafin kuɗin makamashi da kwal da ɗanyen mai ke kawowa, kuma ana sa ran cewa makomar methanol a kwata na huɗu ko babban yuwuwar rashin ƙarfi.