Shekarar 2023 ta zo ƙarshen shekara, idan aka yi la'akari da baya a wannan shekarar, kasuwar ɗanyen mai ta duniya a rage yawan samar da mai a OPEC+ da kuma rikice-rikicen siyasa za a iya bayyana su a matsayin waɗanda ba za a iya faɗi ba, wato hauhawar farashi da raguwar farashi.

1. Binciken yanayin farashin danyen mai na duniya a shekarar 2023

A wannan shekarar, man fetur na duniya (Brent futures) gaba ɗaya ya nuna raguwar farashi, amma cibiyar farashin nauyi ta canza sosai. Ya zuwa ranar 31 ga Oktoba, matsakaicin farashin man fetur na Brent na shekarar 2023 ya kasance dala Amurka 82.66 a kowace ganga, ƙasa da kashi 16.58% daga matsakaicin farashi a bara. Yanayin farashin man fetur na duniya a wannan shekarar ya nuna halayen "cibiyar nauyi ta ragu, wadda ta kasance ƙasa sannan ta yi tsada", kuma matsin lamba daban-daban na tattalin arziki kamar rikicin banki a Turai da Amurka sun bayyana a ƙarƙashin tushen hauhawar farashin riba a rabin farko na shekara, wanda ya haifar da raguwar farashin mai, ƙasa da kashi 16%. Bayan shiga rabin shekara ta biyu, godiya ga goyon bayan ƙasashe da yawa masu samar da mai kamar rage yawan samar da mai, manyan manufofin sun fara bayyana, raguwar yawan samar da mai ta OPEC+ ta zarce ganga miliyan 2.6 a kowace rana, daidai da kashi 2.7% na yawan samar da mai a duniya, wanda ya haifar da hauhawar farashin mai da kusan kashi 20%, makomar man fetur ta Brent ta sake komawa sama da dala $80 a kowace ganga.

Jerin Brent na 2023 shine $71.84- $96.55 / BBL, tare da mafi girman maki da ya faru a ranar 27 ga Satumba kuma mafi ƙanƙanta a ranar 12 ga Yuni. $70- $90 kowace ganga ita ce babban yankin aiki ga makomar ɗanyen mai na Brent a 2023. Ya zuwa ranar 31 ga Oktoba, makomar ɗanyen mai ta WTI da Brent ta faɗi da $12.66 / ganga da $9.14 / ganga bi da bi daga mafi girman shekarar.

Bayan shiga watan Oktoba, saboda barkewar rikicin Falasdinawa da Isra'ila, farashin danyen mai na duniya ya tashi sosai a ƙarƙashin ƙimar haɗarin siyasa, amma tare da rikicin bai shafi yawan fitar da manyan ƙasashe masu samar da mai ba, haɗarin samar da kayayyaki ya ragu, kuma OPEC da Amurka sun ƙara yawan samar da ɗanyen mai, farashin mai ya faɗi nan take. Musamman ma, rikicin ya ɓarke ​​a ranar 7 ga Oktoba, kuma har zuwa ranar 19 ga Oktoba, farashin danyen mai na Brent ya tashi da dala $4.23 a kowace ganga. Ya zuwa ranar 31 ga Oktoba, farashin danyen mai na Brent ya kasance dala $87.41 a kowace ganga, ƙasa da dala $4.97 a kowace ganga daga ranar 19 ga Oktoba, wanda ya share duk ribar da aka samu tun bayan rikicin Isra'ila da Falasɗinawa.

Ii. Binciken manyan abubuwan da ke tasiri ga kasuwar danyen mai ta duniya a shekarar 2023

A shekarar 2023, tasirin tattalin arziki da na siyasa kan farashin danyen mai ya ƙaru. Tasirin tattalin arziki da na siyasa kan danyen mai ya fi mayar da hankali ne kan ɓangaren buƙata. A watan Maris na wannan shekarar, rikicin bankuna a Turai da Amurka ya ɓarke, an gabatar da kalaman ɓatanci na Babban Bankin Tarayya a watan Afrilu, haɗarin rufin bashi a Amurka ya shiga cikin matsin lamba a watan Mayu, kuma yanayin hauhawar farashin riba da hauhawar farashin ruwa ya haifar a watan Yuni ya shafi tattalin arziki, kuma rauni da ra'ayin rashin tabbas a matakin tattalin arziki sun danne farashin mai na duniya kai tsaye daga Maris zuwa Yuni. Hakanan ya zama babban abin da ya sa farashin mai na duniya ba zai iya tashi a rabin farko na shekara ba. A fannin siyasa, barkewar rikicin Isra'ila da Falasɗinawa a ranar 7 ga Oktoba, haɗarin siyasa ya sake ƙaruwa, kuma farashin mai na duniya ya koma sama da dala $90 a kowace ganga a ƙarƙashin goyon bayan wannan, amma tare da kasuwa ta sake duba ainihin tasirin wannan lamari, damuwar game da haɗarin wadata, kuma farashin ɗanyen mai ya faɗi.

A halin yanzu, dangane da manyan abubuwan da ke tasiri, za a iya taƙaita shi a matsayin waɗannan fannoni: ko rikicin Isra'ila da Falasɗinu zai shafi yawan man da manyan masu samar da mai ke fitarwa, tsawaita rage yawan man da OPEC+ ke samarwa zuwa ƙarshen shekara, sassauta takunkumin da Amurka ta sanya wa Venezuela, ƙaruwar yawan man da Amurka ke samarwa zuwa mafi girma a shekara, ci gaban hauhawar farashin kaya a Turai da Amurka, ainihin aikin buƙatun Asiya, ƙaruwar yawan man da Iran ke samarwa da kuma canjin yanayin 'yan kasuwa.

Menene ma'anar da ke tattare da canjin kasuwar danyen mai ta duniya a shekarar 2023? A karkashin matsalar tattalin arziki, menene alkiblar kasuwar danyen mai a gaba? A ranar 3 ga Nuwamba, 15:00-15:45, Longzhong Information za ta kaddamar da wani shiri kai tsaye na kasuwar shekara-shekara a shekarar 2023, wanda zai ba ku cikakken bayani game da farashin mai, wuraren da tattalin arziki ke fuskantar barazana, muhimman abubuwan da suka shafi wadata da buƙatu da kuma hasashen farashin mai a nan gaba, da hasashen yanayin kasuwa a shekarar 2024 a gaba, da kuma taimakawa wajen tsara tsare-tsaren kamfanoni!