Gabatarwa: Bayan da kasuwar MDI mai tsafta ta cikin gida ta shiga rumbun ajiya a wani babban mataki a watan Mayu, koma bayan da aka samu a watan Yuni ya ci gaba da narkar da kayan da aka gama da kuma kayan da aka yi amfani da su, wato MDI mai tsafta ta tsawon watanni biyu na cire kayan da aka yi da su, kasuwar slurry ta fara siyan kayayyaki, a farkon buƙatu, shin za ta iya taimaka wa MDI mai tsafta ta ci gaba da bunkasa?

Farashi yana canzawa a cikin kunkuntar kewayon kuma yana ci gaba da narkar da kayayyaki na zamantakewa

A shekarar 2023, farashin MDI mai tsabta yana nan a daidai lokacin da ake da kusan shekaru uku, tare da ƙarancin sararin canzawa gaba ɗaya. Duk da haka, tun daga tsakiyar watan Afrilu, farashin kasuwa na MDI mai tsabta ya tashi a hankali kuma ya ci gaba da riƙe farashi mai tsada na shekara, amma farashin har yanzu yana kan ƙasa a daidai lokacin a shekarun da suka gabata. A wannan matakin farashi, ɓangaren buƙata gabaɗaya ne, ana ci gaba da bin diddigin oda, kuma ana narkar da kayan da aka gama a farkon matakin. A wannan matakin, kayan zamantakewa suna ci gaba da narkar da su, kuma kayan da ke ƙasa suma sun shiga ƙaramin matakin.

Asarar kulawa tana da ƙasa akai-akai, wanda hakan yana da kyau ga ɓangaren samar da kayayyaki na kasuwa

An fara gyaran masana'antar giya ta Shanghai Lianheng mai tan 35+ 240,000/shekara daga ranar 11 ga Yuni, wanda ya shafi masana'antar gyaran Shanghai Huntsman da BASF ta Shanghai, kuma baya ga tallafawa gyare-gyare, gyaran Ningbo na mataki na I tan 400,000/shekara, matakin II tan 800,000/shekara, ban da aikin injin Fujian mara kyau, yana kula da kusan kashi 50% na kayan da ake amfani da su. An rage na'urar tan 600,000/shekara a Shanghai saboda matsalolin samar da kayan masarufi. Saiti da yawa na gyaran na'urori + mummunan tasiri, jimlar nauyin MDI na cikin gida ya ci gaba da kasancewa kusan kashi 60% kawai, kuma tun daga watan Maris, cikakken nauyin MDI ya ci gaba da raguwa, kuma yawan aiki a watan Yuni da Yuli ya ci gaba da kasancewa kusan kashi 60% kawai.

Nauyin da ke ƙasa yana ƙaruwa a hankali, kuma ƙaruwar slurry ita ce mafi bayyananne

A watan Mayu, jimillar buƙatun da ke ƙasa sun yi yawa. Daga cikinsu, ana kiyaye nauyin slurry a kusan kashi 60%, ana kiyaye nauyin ruwa na ƙasa a kashi 5-60%, ana kiyaye nauyin TPU a kusan kashi 70%, kuma ana kiyaye nauyin spandex a kashi 7-8%. Duk da haka, tare da ƙarancin ƙarfin amfani na tashar zuwa cikin ma'ajiyar, ƙaruwar umarnin ajiya, ƙarancin umarnin buƙata a tsakiya da ƙarshen watan Mayu, suna shiga matakin narkewar abinci, kuma ribar da ke ƙasa ba ta da kyau, farashin slurry na ƙasa, ruwan sole, farashin ciniki na kasuwa na TPU ya yi ƙasa, ƙarancin riba, wanda ke haifar da rashin amincewa da ƙasa, ƙarancin yawan ciniki da ke haifar da kula da kayan, ƙaramin canji a cikin kayan. Amma hasashen kasuwa ta gaba har yanzu ba shi da kyakkyawan fata. Kuma kasuwar spandex saboda yawan kaya, yanayin rashin tabbas a buɗe, buƙata ta ragu. Daga cikinsu, nauyin slurry zai kasance kusan kashi 4-5%, za a kiyaye nauyin ruwa na ƙasa a kashi 5%, za a kiyaye nauyin TPU a kusan kashi 5-6%, kuma za a kiyaye nauyin spandex a kusan kashi 7%. Duk da haka, da tsakiyar da ƙarshen watan Yuni, farashin kasuwa na slurry, sole stock, spandex da TPU ya shiga ƙasa, bayan narkewar kaya zuwa ƙasa, kayan masarufi na BDO da AA suka fara a jere, sha'awar siyayya ta ƙaru, kuma kasuwar ƙarshe ta ƙaru saboda fa'idar farashi, sha'awar siyayya ta yi zafi, nauyin da ke ƙasa ya ƙaru a hankali, musamman buƙatar kasuwar slurry don ci gaba da ƙaruwa a bayyane.

Idan aka yi la'akari da ƙarancin kayan da ake samarwa a yanzu, yawan kayan aikin gyara, da kuma shirin gyara na dogon lokaci na na'urorin ƙasashen waje, na'urar MDI ta Borst Chemical Company ta Hungary (tan 350,000/shekara) ta fara dakatar da samarwa a ranar 18 ga Yuli don gyarawa da sauye-sauyen fasaha da faɗaɗawa, kuma ta karu zuwa tan 400,000/shekara bayan sauye-sauyen fasaha. Ana sa ran gyaran zai ɗauki kimanin kwanaki 80, kuma ɓangaren samar da kayayyaki zai ci gaba da adanawa kaɗan. Bangaren buƙata da aka fi so yana farawa a matakai, kuma ƙarfin haɓaka matakan da ke cikin filin yana zafi, ko kuma yana shafar tsakiyar nauyi na MDI na ɗan gajeren lokaci. Duk da haka, ƙarfin amfani gabaɗaya na kasuwar ƙarshen ba shi da kyau, kuma na'urar gyara MDI tsantsa tana adana wani ɓangare na shirin tuƙi a tsakiyar watanni da ƙarshen, kuma ana sa ran shagon samar da kayayyaki zai ƙaru kaɗan ko kuma ya shafi girman canjin da tsawon lokaci, kuma ya ci gaba da bin diddigin ƙaruwar buƙata da canje-canjen girman wadata a cikin lokaci na gaba.